Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

122
FXUS63 KLSX 012009
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
309 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One to two total inches of rain total are forecast mainly
  north of I-70. Rain will exit the area by tomorrow afternoon.

- Cooler and dry weather will persist from tomorrow through at least
  the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A cold front is currently draped across the bi-state in a line
extending from Kansas City northeastward through Keokuk, IA and
beyond. Northern and central Missouri have been feeling the
resulting rain with MRMS estimated totals measuring generally 1 to 3
inches over the past 24 hours. In our region, rainfall estimates are
struggling to reach an inch. There is still plenty of time, though.
Central Missouri northeastward into west-central Illinois are still
forecast to receive 1 to 2 inches total between now and tomorrow
morning with locally higher amounts possible. These locally higher
amounts will be driven primarily by any embedded thunderstorms that
are able to develop. The HRRR and RAP are excited about this
potential as seen in modeled instability which flows into
reflectivity and precip totals via rainfall efficiency. In reality,
the rain shield has been and continues to be much less robust than
modeled due to a MUCAPE difference of a few hundred J/kg. The low
instability values, sporadic subsidence in the column, pockets of
dry air aloft, and weakening low-level jet are all mitigating
factors for heavy rainfall. For that reason, the REFS LPMM of 1 to 2
inches maximum outside of the aforementioned areas seems reasonable.
With that said, if any embedded thunderstorms do become robust, high
rainfall rates may produce be able to produce brief flash flooding,
especially in urban areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The cold front and accompanying rainfall will have mostly cleared
the area by Friday afternoon, and we`ll notice the difference. High
temperatures are forecast in the 60s areawide - a 10 to 20 degree
drop from today - and lows will fall into the 40s and 50s Friday
night. These lows will stick around for the next week, so dust off
your jacket if you haven`t already. You won`t need the jacket by
afternoon, though, as highs are expected to climb into the 70s each
day. A secondary cold front moving through the region early next
week will help keep things in check as well as scour out any
lingering moisture from the region. In short, next week will be
cooler, dry, and perfect for outdoor activities.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 259 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Reduced flight conditions will persist through most of the TAF
period. A cold front is sinking southeastward slowly, and its
associated rain will follow suit. With the heaviest showers, IFR
visibilities are expected with LIFR briefly possible. Lower
clouds will follow the front, bringing MVFR and IFR ceilings
areawide overnight. Winds will quickly shift to northerly as the
front passes. By 18z, VFR conditions are forecast north of I-70.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Jaja
LONG TERM...Jaja
AVIATION...Jaja