Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

217
FXUS63 KLSX 061108
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
508 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning goes into effect late Friday night as low
  temperatures drop near and just below freezing through early
  Saturday morning.

- Dry conditions are favored through much of the week with
  seasonably cool temperatures moderating to above normal
  Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Cool, fall temperatures have filled in behind a cold front with
surface observations showing temperatures largely in the 40s early
this morning. RAP soundings depict saturation extending from the SFC
through about 700MB, where GOES-19 microphysics satellite imagery
consequently follows low/mid-level stratus rotating southward in the
northerly flow behind the boundary. RAP mesoanalysis also shows weak
moisture convergence moving north to south through mid-to-late
morning with patchy light drizzle slowly fading as drier air wraps
in on the eastern side of surface high pressure centered over the
northern stretch of the Mississippi Valley. Clouds generally break
from northeast to southwest as sunshine return from early to mid-
afternoon. Northerly surface winds of 5-10 mph, occasionally peaking
near 15 mph east of Mississippi River, will provide a fall chill as
highs only reach the upper 40s over northeast Missouri and west-
central Illinois. Elsewhere, highs range through the 50s.

Surface high pressure centers over Missouri tonight into Saturday
with surface winds going calm to light/variable. Mostly clear skies
and light surface flow will allow temperatures to fall to the
coolest levels this fall so far with Saturday morning lows in the
upper 20s to low-30s with a few lower readings in the typical
cooler, rural locations. Therefore, a Freeze Warning goes into
effect areawide from 06z (12am) through 14z (8am) Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 326 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

(Saturday Night - Sunday)

Surface high pressure continues to move southward through the region
Saturday night as an upper level trough extends southwest of a
closed upper level low over New England. The trough has relatively
little impact other than reinforcing the northwesterly flow aloft,
while surface winds remain light under mostly clear skies. Another
night of near-freezing lows is expected with the coolest
temperatures in the upper 20s to low-30s affecting locations along
and south of I-70. The Freeze Warning issued for late Friday and
early Saturday morning will effectively put an end to frost/freeze
headlines for the remainder of the season, but those taking
advantage of the recent late-season warmth should remain cognizant
of near to sub-freezing lows early Sunday morning. Westerly surface
flow around the northern periphery of the ridge moderates
temperatures back to near normal Sunday with highs in the low to mid-
60s.

(Sunday Night - Next Friday)

The general concepts of a fall El Nino pattern seem evident over the
course of the week. Cold air remains well north of the region with
any sensible rain potential well to the south through at least
Wednesday. Another surface high builds eastward from the Plains
under quasi-zonal flow aloft. Mild mid-level air is carried eastward
from the Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley through Wednesday.
Monday/Tuesday are favored to be the warmest with 850mb temperatures
in the low to mid-teens. A weak mid-level trough quickly moves west
to east late Tuesday into Wednesday with slight cooling in the the
mid-level profile, bring temperatures closer to normal (low-60s)
north of I-70 and mid to upper 60s to the south.

The late week pattern remains less certain with LREF 500MB spread
rapidly increase from late Wednesday into Thursday. The spread stems
from the strength of a longwave trough and how much of the eastern
CONUS is enveloped by the longwave feature. This ends up being the
difference between a brief, reinforcement in cold air (GFS) or
a better sustained push (ECMWF) Thursday into Friday. NBM
spreads produce low chances (15-20%) for showers as a weak
surface low tracks west to east ahead of the cold front late
Wednesday into Thursday. However, with uncertainty in the upper
level pattern, there is low confidence in upper support due to
differences in timing, strength, and location of an upper level
shortwave rotating southward down the western side of the
longwave trough. Moisture also looks to be at a premium with
little moisture return, suggesting that if anything
materializes, it will largely be light and will pass through
rather quickly with dry conditions largely favored at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 458 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A broad area of broken/overcast stratus is impacting all
terminals this morning. Ceilings have predominantly been MVFR
with observations briefly dipping into IFR territory. IFR is
not expected to expand, nor be sustained at any given terminal.
Conditions are expected to improve through the area from
northeast to southwest, returning to VFR this afternoon into
this evening. Conditions then remain VFR through the end of the
period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-
     072>075-084-085-099.
IL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Maples
LONG TERM...Maples
AVIATION...Maples