Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

194
FXUS63 KLSX 062327
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
527 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A Freeze Warning remains in effect area-wide tonight into Saturday
  morning.

- Hazardous weather is not anticipated through next Friday as
  dry conditions prevail and temperatures gradually warm to
  start the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 205 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A compact upper-level trough can be seen in water vapor imagery
spinning over the Great Lakes this afternoon, with a shortwave digs
into the Desert Southwest. Locally at the surface, yesterday`s cold
front has departed the region well to the southeast, with an area of
high pressure moving southward into the Midwest. This area of high
pressure will continue to push the current cloud cover south-
southwestward through this evening, with skies across much of the
CWA expected to be clear.

In addition to the clearing skies, the high will also serve to calm
winds through the overnight hours. These factors will lead to
efficient radiational cooling across the CWA, with temperatures
expected to drop to around freezing by sunrise. This will
particularly be the case for low-lying rural areas. The Freeze
Warning remains on track, and will be the last one of the season
given how far into the fall we are.

Through the day Saturday, the upper-level trough will move further
eastward as the southwestern shortwave becomes cut off. The eastward
phasing of the trough will allow for the surface high to drift
slightly eastward as well. With the center of the high moving
overhead through the day, our weather will remain calm, though a
piece of the southwestern cutoff will shear off and pass overhead,
producing some upper-level clouds. Even so, with the lack of low-
level clouds and the eastward movement of the trough, temperatures
will tick up slightly during the afternoon relative to today.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 205 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Guidance consensus is that the upper-level flow over the Middle
Mississippi will remain generally northwesterly through the extended
forecast period. Despite this, low-level ridging centered over the
region will continue feeding warm air into the region, supporting
above normal surface temperatures through the first portion of the
week.

Starting Wednesday and continuing through the end of the workweek,
an upper-level trough will deepen over the eastern CONUS and send a
series of shortwaves through the Midwest. This phasing of the upper
levels supports flow through the depth of the atmosphere becoming
north-northwesterly. Despite both deterministic guidance and
ensemble clusters favoring this solution, how the trough and
subsequent shortwaves evolve varies among guidance sources. This
will dictate the placement of a cooler, more seasonable air mass as
it moves across the eastern CONUS through the latter portion of the
workweek. A more glancing blow, which is currently favored by a
majority of guidance and the NBM, will gradually cool temperatures
through the period to around climatological normals. A more direct
hit from the air mass would lead to daily highs struggling to break
50 degrees by Friday per cooler ensemble members. With the CWA
expected to be on the periphery of this air mass, I do expect our
temperature forecast for this portion of the period to fluctuate in
the coming days as guidance hones in on a common solution.

As for precipitation chances, a lack of notable return flow from the
Gulf through the period and dry antecedent conditions lead to low
confidence in precipitation chances, including toward the end of the
week when the upper-level trough deepens over the eastern CONUS.
Depending on the potency and track of embedded shortwaves, there is
a very low chance (10%) for light rainfall roughly on Friday.
Subsequent waves would have less moisture to work with, leading to
even lower chances as we move into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 517 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

MVFR stratus continues to push south and erode as dry air
filters in from the north. VFR conditions with light and
variable winds will prevail after the deck exits. The exception
to this will be in river valleys where steam fog is expected to
develop late tonight after skies clear.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     MOZ018-019-026-027-034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-
     072>075-084-085-099.
IL...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for
     ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Elmore
LONG TERM...Elmore
AVIATION...Jaja