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Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 3 Miles NNW Black Jack MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: 3 Miles NNW Black Jack MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Saint Louis, MO
Updated: 5:51 pm CDT May 13, 2026
 
Tonight

Tonight: Patchy fog after 4am.  Otherwise, clear, with a low around 44. North wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable  in the evening.
Clear then
Patchy Fog

Thursday

Thursday: Patchy fog before 8am.  Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Patchy Fog
then Sunny

Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: A slight chance of showers between 3am and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Mostly Cloudy
then Chance
Showers
Friday

Friday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 1pm.  Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Showers
Likely

Friday
Night
Friday Night: A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Partly Cloudy
then Chance
Showers
Saturday

Saturday: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Showers
Likely

Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Slight Chance
T-storms

Sunday

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Mostly Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am.  Mostly clear, with a low around 71.
Mostly Clear
then Slight
Chance
T-storms
Lo 44 °F Hi 75 °F Lo 57 °F Hi 83 °F Lo 66 °F Hi 86 °F Lo 65 °F Hi 87 °F Lo 71 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Tonight
 
Patchy fog after 4am. Otherwise, clear, with a low around 44. North wind 10 to 15 mph becoming light and variable in the evening.
Thursday
 
Patchy fog before 8am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 75. Calm wind becoming southeast 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Thursday Night
 
A slight chance of showers between 3am and 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. Southeast wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Friday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 7am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 7am and 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind 11 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Friday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
Saturday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 86. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Saturday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 87.
Sunday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly clear, with a low around 71.
Monday
 
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.
Monday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Tuesday
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Chance of precipitation is 70%.
Tuesday Night
 
A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 63.
Wednesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 77.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 3 Miles NNW Black Jack MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
210
FXUS63 KLSX 132302
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
602 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A warmer and wetter weather pattern will begin early Friday
  continuing into early next week, with highest chances of showers
  and thunderstorms Friday morning, Saturday, and either late
  Monday or Tuesday.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

A surface high pressure center will shift into the Mid-Mississippi
River Valley tonight, promoting efficient radiational cooling when
combined with clear skies. As a result, low temperatures will cool
to around 40 to the mid-40s F, but a few river valley locations
dipping into the upper 30s F cannot be ruled out. Although it is
unlikely that crossover temperatures will be reached, air-water
temperature differences could allow development of patchy river
valley fog early Thursday morning.

The high pressure center will gradually depart the CWA on Thursday
with low-level flow becoming more southeasterly, but advection will
remain weak through the day. With another day of strong insolation,
high temperatures on Thursday will be similar to today.

Pfahler

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 253 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Thursday night, a warm front lifting northeastward through MO and a
40 to 50 kt southwesterly LLJ will result in strong low-level WAA
and moisture transport extending into the Mid-Mississippi River
Valley. CAMs are in general agreement that showers and thunderstorms
will form overnight Thursday night at the nose of the LLJ across
northern MO, potentially growing upscale into a multicell cluster or
MCS that propagates southeastward into locations along and north of
I-70 through Friday morning. HREF mean MUCAPE reaches 500 to 1000
J/kg along/west of the Mississippi River and deterministic guidance
generally depicts effective wind shear around 20 to 30 kt,
supporting a threat of small hail with any stronger thunderstorms.
However, given marginal wind shear and an unfavorable preferential
multicell/linear storm mode, confidence is currently low in any
thunderstorms producing severe hail.

As showers and thunderstorms outrun the reservoir of instability and
the LLJ weakens, they should weaken and dissipate through the
morning. Slight mid-level height rises and a residual capping
inversion casts doubt in anything more than isolated redevelopment
of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. In fact,
ensemble model probabilities of measurable rainfall lower to only 10
to 20 percent by that time. Warmer temperatures are forecast on
Friday with the northeastward-advancing warm front leaving the CWA
in the warm sector. High temperatures are, therefore, anticipated to
reach the 80s F with the exception of cooler temperatures across
south-central/southwestern IL where cloud debris could linger longer.

Around 60 to 80 percent of ensemble model membership has another
round of showers and thunderstorms developing Saturday morning,
coincident with the maximum in nocturnal LLJ strength, but one or
more passing perturbations within quasi-zonal upper-level flow will
support a continuation of showers and thunderstorms at times through
the day. An increasingly moist and unstable airmass will be in place
by Saturday, but the vast majority of model guidance has weak deep-
layer wind shear (<20 kt) in place limiting confidence at this range
in thunderstorms becoming severe. However, these types of patterns
can sometimes yield MCVs that lead to locally higher wind shear, but
these details are nearly impossible to determine at this range. With
the presence of potential clouds and precipitation, high
temperatures are relatively more uncertain on Saturday with ensemble
model guidance interquartile ranges spanning 5 to 8 F, translating
to anywhere from the mid-70s to mid-80s F. The current forecast
reflects the higher end of this span of temperature outcomes.
Contrastingly, confidence is increasing in Sunday being a mainly dry
day across the CWA with any additional showers and thunderstorms
lifting to the north/northeast and mid-level heights rising as the
upper-level flow pattern amplifies across the CONUS, allowing high
temperatures to more firmly warm into the 80s F CWA-wide.

Global model guidance is in agreement that upper-level troughing
will take place across the Rocky Mountains Sunday into early next
week, with uncertainty in the ejection of one or more shortwave
troughs through southwesterly flow extending into the Mid-
Mississippi River Valley. Due to timing and track differences across
model guidance on when the main shortwave trough ejects, there is
uncertainty when an associated cold front will approach and pass
through the CWA, ranging from late Monday evening/night to Tuesday
night, determining when chances of additional showers and
thunderstorms are maximized. With stronger wind shear and large-
scale forcing, the potential for severe thunderstorms will also need
to be monitored if the front is favorably in phase with the diurnal
maximum in instability (e.g., afternoon and evening), but at this
juncture there is a preference in ensemble and machine-learning
model guidance for the severe threat during this period to be
greatest on Monday to the west of the CWA. Ahead of the front, warm,
above average temperatures will persist with highs in the 80s to
near 90 F.

Pfahler

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Thursday Evening)
Issued at 558 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

High pressure will lead to largely VFR conditions, with winds
shifting from northerly today to southeasterly tomorrow as the
high shifts to our east. The only weather concern at the terminals
will be the potential for steam fog at the airports in the river
valleys. The southeasterly winds would advect any fog away from
KSUS but toward KJEF. Confidence in that steam fog isn`t
particularly high, so I`ve just included 6SM BR at KJEF for the
time being.

BSH

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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