Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

731
FXUS63 KLSX 032337
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
637 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

-  No hazardous weather is expected through the forecast period
   as temperatures gradually warm and dry weather prevails.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows that quazi-zonal flow stretches
from the Great Plains toward the East Coast. This flow has an
expansive area of high pressure at the surface slowly oozing
eastward across the Great Lakes. Both features have our local
weather calm and clear ahead of a shortwave currently over the
Northern Plains passing through the Midwest tonight. This wave will
slowly send a cold front through the CWA during the day Sunday. Weak
northwesterly flow, and thus, cold air advection, will be lagging
behind the front, with little to no impact to temperatures expected
for a majority of the area tomorrow. Given the weakness of the
front, dynamic lift displaced from the region, and dryness of the
local atmosphere, this FROPA is expected to be uneventful for the
CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A varying degree of northwesterly flow will prevail aloft across the
Middle Mississippi Valley through a majority of the long-range
forecast period per both ensemble clusters and deterministic
guidance. This leads to high confidence in our weather staying
seasonable and calm through a majority of the upcoming workweek.

Toward the end of the workweek, guidance shows gradual height rises
ahead of a ridge building into the Midwest next weekend; however,
how quickly heights rise and by how much is uncertain. This has the
spread between the 25th and 75th percentile of temperatures among
ensemble guidance increasing by as much as 10 degrees Wednesday
onward. While the entire ensemble suite drifts warmer Wednesday and
beyond, the spread leads to uncertainty by how much. The warmer
solution that the NBM favors, most likely because of the warm-biased
GFS/GEFS, has temperatures running 10-15 degrees above normal
through this portion of the period. However, the cooler side of
ensemble spread has temperatures at to a few degrees above
climatology. All of this to say, confidence is high in temperatures
warming above normal by next weekend, but by how much is
uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Light and variable surface winds will shift out of the northwest
Sunday morning, but are expected to remain below 10kts. VFR
conditions persist.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Elmore
LONG TERM...Elmore
AVIATION...Maples