Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

454
FXUS63 KLSX 110351
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
951 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While some light rain is possible Thursday night (20-30%), the
  Thursday through early Saturday period will be mostly dry, with
  slightly above average temperatures.

- While there is a reasonable chance (30-70%) for beneficial
  rainfall this weekend, with the highest chances south of I-70.
  Confidence remains low in the track of this system, which will
  have a significant impact on our potential for meaningful
  rainfall amounts.


&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main focus of the short term period continues to be on the
passage of today`s cold front, which is in the process of crossing
the I-44 corridor as of 1:30 PM. While this has kept temperatures on
the cooler side across central/NE MO and west-central Illinois, even
in these cooler areas afternoon temperatures have already reaching
the low to mid 50s. This is still roughly 10-15 degrees above
average for this time of year in spite of the front. Meanwhile,
areas south of the front have soared into the mid 60s to mid 70s,
which is roughly 25 to 30 degrees above average. Any way you slice
it, today has been quite warm in spite of the passing front.
Meanwhile, breezy north-northwest winds have filled in behind the
front, with gusts generally reaching a maximum of about 25 mph.
Strong enough to notice with temperatures in the 50s, but otherwise
not enough to be particularly impactful. Winds will steadily weaken
this evening and overnight.

One additional thing to keep an eye on late this afternoon and
evening will be the potential for a few showers across southeast
Missouri and southern Illinois, which may just barely scrape against
our southeastern border before quickly exiting to the southeast. In
this area, high resolution models indicate a reasonable potential
for around 250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE to develop by late afternoon,
although most of this is expected to occur just to our southeast.
Still, it`s enough to support a low potential (10-20%) for weak
thunderstorms between roughly 4-7 pm. Again, this would likely
occur very near the southeastern border of our county warning
area, so these low probabilities are strictly for the counties we
forecast for. It should be noted, though, that the chance for
showers (50- 80%) and thunderstorms (20%) is higher just to the
southeast, particularly in the Bootheel region of Missouri.

Benign weather is expected Wednesday as surface high pressure and
dry, stable air settles into the area. Temperatures will be more
seasonably mild but still slightly above average (5-10 degrees),
with highs in the mid 40s to low 50s for the most part. Light winds
can also be expected thanks to the aforementioned high pressure.

BRC

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Thursday through Next Tuesday)
Issued at 219 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

The main focus of the medium and long range (THU-TUE) portion of the
forecast continues to be the potential for beneficial rainfall
over the weekend. While a reasonable potential for this still
exists, models continue to exhibit a high degree of run-to run
inconsistency and high ensemble spread regarding this possibility,
and as a result, this is far from a sure thing at this stage.

Before we get there though, there is very little in the way of
potentially impactful weather expected in the Thursday through
early Saturday timeframe. The large scale pattern will feature
persistent west-northwest flow as a flat longwave ridge slowly
inches eastward, with a few subtle impulses moving through the
mean flow. One such impulse may provide just enough forcing and
mid level moisture to produce some light rain Thursday night, but
the presence of antecedent dry low level air continues to
significantly limit precipitation probabilities (20-30%) and
potential amounts (90th percentile amounts less than 1/4 inch).
While it wouldn`t be a shock to see a narrow streak of rain up to
that amount, this is not expected to produce noteworthy impacts to
the area. Otherwise, slightly above normal temperatures will
continue Thursday with slightly warmer values yet on Friday,
perhaps climbing back into the mid to upper 50s in
central/southeast Missouri.

Attention then turns to our potential rainmaker arriving from the
west over the weekend. While there remains considerable model
variability in the timing and strength of this system, confidence is
high that a southern stream shortwave will move across the southern
CONUS and lower Mississippi Valley between late Saturday and Sunday,
phasing with another northern stream wave as it does so. As this
system arrives, rich Gulf moisture will be transported northward,
and the combination of isentropic ascent and convergence along a
stalled warm front is expected to produce widespread precipitation.
However, exactly WHERE this precipitation falls remains the main
source of uncertainty, and more specifically whether the more
meaningful and soaking rain will extend far enough north to provide
any benefit to our area.

Recent cluster analysis reveals that there is still quite a bit of
spread in the track and strength of this low. To make matters worse,
the variations in the clusters appear to be heavily weighted toward
individual model suites, which also decreases confidence in our
potential solution. The strongest/wettest cluster is heavily
weighted by the GEPS (Canadian) ensemble, while the ECMWF
produces a weaker, faster, and drier solution with a shorter
window for moisture return. The GEFS members are a bit more evenly
distributed, but is still much drier than the GEPS overall. While
the areas that DO see rain will have the potential to see
meaningful (and much needed) rainfall amounts, it remains far from
a guarantee that this will occur locally, even in the most
favored areas like the Ozarks and southern Illinois. Latest
operational precipitation probabilities have also dropped slightly
to reflect a slight shift toward the drier solutions, but this
trend may continue to fluctuate in the coming days, and there
remains a reasonable chance (50-70%) that areas south of I-70 will
see at least some beneficial rain over the weekend. Probabilities
north of I-70 are much more tenuous (30-50%) due to the uncertain
track of the low.

Behind this system heading into early next week, confidence is
relatively high that an upper ridge will quickly build into the
area, leading to a steady warming trend. Precipitation chances are
also relatively low, with almost no support for additional rain
until potentially late next week. In other words, if the drier, more
southerly solutions for this weekend end up closer to reality, it
may not see much, if any meaningful drought improvement for the next
week.

BRC

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 951 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Dry/VFR conditions with slackening northerly winds are expected
for the remainder of the night. Look for winds to go
light/variable on Wednesday from west to east as a surface high
moves into the region.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX