Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

277
FXUS63 KLSX 110456
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
1056 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild weather comes to an end on Wednesday as a strong cold
  front brings gusty winds and much colder weather.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

A very weak blue sky front is draped west to east across the
forecast area this afternoon, stalling roughly along Interstate
70. This front will lift back north tonight as a warm front
just as the next stronger cold front approaches from the west.
At one point it had looked like some showers locally might occur
ahead of this front on Wednesday, but moisture return ahead of
the front is not substantial until the front pushes east of our
area. As a result, we`re much more likely to see another dry
frontal passage. We`ll notice this front, though, as winds pick
up strongly out of the northwest behind it. Cold advection will
promote deep mixing to about 5000 feet, allowing gusts to
30-35mph to mix down during the afternoon. Given the deep
mixing, the colder surface temperatures will be a bit delayed.
However, by Thursday morning we`ll all be 10 to 15 degrees
colder. Many areas struggle to reach 50 degrees on Thursday with
fairly widespread cloud cover and a few showers mainly over
Illinois closer to the core of the developing upper trough. A
secondary cold front pushes into the region from the north
Thursday evening likely sending the entire region below freezing
Thursday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 152 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

The coldest day of this stretch is likely to be Friday as fresh cold
advection behind the reinforcing front sends 850MB temperatures down
to about -5C or about 10C below normal for this time of year.
Despite more sunshine on Friday than on Thursday, temperatures area
wide top out only in the mid 40s. As the surface high pressure area
gets closer this weekend we`ll see winds lighten up and cold
advection cease. Nighttime lows will be their coldest if we can get
a clear, calm night. Right now the best potential for that is Friday
night into Saturday morning when latest NBM forecast calls for 20s
area wide. Saturday night could be just as cold if cloud cover holds
off and we see another clear, calm night.

The surface high gradually nudges east through the Great Lakes early
next week with some flavor of upper ridging forecast by all guidance
to develop over the center of the country next week. How quickly our
temperatures rebound will depend on how slow the surface high is to
exit to the east and allow for a southerly low level flow to
develop. Among the ensemble guidance, the earliest warm up back to
above normal temperatures locally is on Monday while some members
hold on to below normal temperatures through at least Wednesday.

Rain chances are minimal through the middle of next week as
northwest flow aloft promotes subsidence and suppresses moisture to
the south and west. The only possible exception is a southern stream
shortwave passing by to our south Sunday into Monday. Among the 12Z
LREF guidance, up to 30 percent of members produce measurable
rainfall in parts of our forecast area during this time period,
down about 10 to 20 percent from the 00Z run.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1052 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through Veteran`s
Day. Light south-southwest flow will increase and become more
west-southwesterly and gusty by 14-16Z. A cold front will move
through the area from northwest to southeast which will turn the
wind to the northwest and increase gusts to 25-30kts in the
afternoon. Winds will diminish Wednesday evening.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kimble
LONG TERM...Kimble
AVIATION...Carney