Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

187
FXUS63 KLSX 151954
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
254 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The threat for strong to severe thunderstorms exists through
  early this evening, mainly across east central and southeast
  Missouri as well as southwest Illinois. Brief, weak tornadoes
  and damaging winds are the main threats.

- Minor snowfall amounts are forecast this evening through
  tonight, mainly across northeast Missouri where as much as 1-3"
  may fall.

- Wind gusts as high as 45-50 mph are expected through early Monday
  morning.

- Unseasonable cold is expected through Tuesday before a rapid
  warmup begins on Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Monday Night)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

A late winter/early spring storm is underway across the region,
with a surface low east of Quincy, IL early this afternoon with
an attendant draped to its southwest. As of 1900 UTC, the boundary
is nearing a KVIH>>KPPQ line with regional radar and GOES-19
satellite imagery showing gradually developing showers and
thunderstorms along the front. The latest SPC mesoanalysis shows
250-500 J/kg of SBCAPE nosing into eastern Missouri with 45-55+
knots of effective shear. It is worth noting however that the RAP
initializations over the past several hours have been consistently
too high with instability/CAPE. This is due to the RAP (and HRRR)
being consistently too high with dewpoints in the warm sector.
This is something that could lead to a slower (or less robust)
development of the QLCS later today. That being said, we still do
expect convection to become more widespread along the boundary
over the next several hours and more organized with time/eastward
extent. Exactly how fast this occurs remains uncertain however,
which is why parts of southeast Missouri and southwest Illinois
have the higher threat for severe weather in our region. Strong
0-3 km shear (40+ knots) with a strong line-normal component
(more perpendicular) means that QLCS mesovortices will be a
concern, which could produce brief, weak tornadoes and/or damaging
winds. Those two hazards remain the primary concerns late this
afternoon through about 7 PM this evening when the cold front
clears our south-central Illinois counties.

Another area of precipitation is expected to move out of western
Missouri into central Missouri early this evening. Model soundings
show very low wetbulb zero heights (below 400 feet AGL), so this
should fall as snow. Upstream observations across eastern Kansas
also have only snow. Surface temperatures are still expected to
be above the freezing mark however, so road impacts are not
expected. There may however be a ~2 hour period with reduced
visibilities (~1 mile). Further northeast, the steadier snow
should last a bit longer, maybe up to 4-6 hours. In these
locations, amounts of 1-2" are expected with some isolated spots
up to 3" possible. Some minor travel impacts are possible in these
locations, as road temperatures may cool below the freezing mark
toward the end of the snowfall. Therefore, have issued a winter
weather advisory for 5 counties in northeast Missouri/western
Illinois. Strong cyclonic flow aloft and steep low-level lapse
rates suggests snow showers/flurries elsewhere overnight and this
activity may last through Monday morning in eastern Missouri over
into Illinois.

Behind the cold front, winds turn to the northwest with about a ~20
degree temperature drop over a 2-hour period. Gust of 45-50 mph
will be common overnight, with the highest gusts most likely
across central/northeast Missouri and west-central Illinois from
late this evening through the predawn hours on Monday. A few gusts
of 55-60 mph would not surprise me either, given unidirectional
winds within the mixed layer and strong low-level cold air
advection. However, did not upgrade any counties to a high wind
warning as the expectation is that any of these 60+ gusts will be
sparse/transient, if they occur at all. The latest HREF
probabilities for 60+ mph wind only peak out at about 20% in our
far northern/northwestern counties.

The aforementioned gusty northwest winds will gradually slack on
Monday, but minimum wind chill values of 0 to -10F are expected in
central/northeast Missouri as well as west-central Illinois early
Monday morning. Low stratus looks to hang around much of the day
on Monday, especially across eastern Missouri into western
Illinois. These low clouds along with continued low-level cold air
advection should keep temperatures some 25-30 degrees below
normal on Monday. This incoming air mass is very impressive with
its origin from Alaska. Temperatures at 850 hPa drop to between
-14 and - 18C, or <1st percentile of climatology. Highs below
freezing are expected nearly areawide, though some spots may top
out just above 32 degrees in central/southeast Missouri where some
sunshine is more likely by the afternoon.

Monday night will be the colder night, though northwest winds will
really lighten up as a surface ridge of high pressure approaches
from the west. The anomalously cold air mass along with a clear sky
and light winds should lead to very cold low temperatures. Lows in
the single digits (north) to teens are forecast. While these will
lows will not be record breaking, they may get within about 4-5
degrees of records at both St. Louis (10F/1900) and Columbia
(8F/1906). Wind chills will be mainly driven by the frigid
aforementioned temperatures, but lowest values of -5 to +5F are
expected across the northern half of the area, including the St.
Louis metro area. For more perspective, St. Louis has only had an
observed wind chill below +5F after 3/15 two times over the past
50 years (1979 and 2002).

Gosselin

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Tuesday through Next Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

(Tuesday - Tuesday Night)

Tuesday will still be unseasonably cold, though not nearly as cold
as Monday as highs reach into the 30s to low 40s from northeast to
southwest. A hybrid clipper is expected to move through the region
Tuesday night, potentially bringing some light rain or snow to the
area. Better odds are to our northeast however for accumulating
snow, closer to the climatology of northwest flow/Alberta clipper
systems.


(Wednesday - Next Sunday)

A much warmer and drier weather pattern looks to take hold on
Wednesday and should continue through next weekend. Our region
begins to feel more influence from the anomalous mid/upper level
ridge across the intermountain west. Wednesday should be the a
transition day, with highs mostly in the 60s but widespread 70s are
expected Thursday onward. There is also high confidence in well-
above normal temperatures through at least Friday, with even the
25th percentile of the NBM showing 60s/70s. Temperature uncertainty
does increase next weekend, as some ensemble members from the LREF
show a cold frontal passage. This is when the spread on the IQR of
the NBM increase to 20-25 degrees. This is the difference from a
continuation of readings ~20 degrees above normal to temperatures
dropping back to near to slightly below normal values for late March.


Gosselin

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

The cold front is nearing central Missouri, and should push
through KCOU/KJEF over the next 2 hours. The boundary should then
push through KUIN and the metro terminals by late afternoon.
Showers are likely associated with this frontal passage, with
thunder expected for the metro. Brief reductions in visibility (to
IFR) are expected in thunderstorms. Behind the front, rain will
linger for a few hours as winds turn to the northwest. Another
round of precipitation, this time in the form of snow, should
impact central Missouri and KUIN sites this evening. The snow
should last a bit longer at KUIN, into the early overnight hours.
Accumulations at KCOU/KJEF should be light (less than 1") and on
elevated/grassy surfaces. Up at KUIN, amounts of 1-2" are expected
with some minor (up to 0.5" roughly) possible on road surfaces.
Visibilities should drop to IFR in the snow. Light snow showers
may impact the metro terminals from 0600-0900 UTC approximately,
but should not be as widespread as further north. Otherwise, look
for low MVFR ceilings and very gusty northwest winds tonight into
Monday morning.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for Audrain MO-Boone MO-
     Callaway MO-Cole MO-Crawford MO-Franklin MO-Gasconade MO-
     Iron MO-Jefferson MO-Knox MO-Lewis MO-Lincoln MO-Madison MO-
     Marion MO-Moniteau MO-Monroe MO-Montgomery MO-Osage MO-Pike
     MO-Ralls MO-Reynolds MO-Saint Charles MO-Saint Francois MO-
     Saint Louis City MO-Saint Louis MO-Sainte Genevieve MO-
     Shelby MO-Warren MO-Washington MO.

IL...Wind Advisory until noon CDT Monday for Adams IL-Bond IL-Brown
     IL-Calhoun IL-Clinton IL-Fayette IL-Greene IL-Jersey IL-
     Macoupin IL-Madison IL-Marion IL-Monroe IL-Montgomery IL-
     Pike IL-Randolph IL-Saint Clair IL-Washington IL.

&&

$$

WFO LSX