Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

997
FXUS63 KLSX 062330
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Saint Louis MO
530 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Well above normal temperatures are expected (90+%) early next
  week, and Tuesday remains likely to be the warmest of the week.

- The next opportunity for meaningful precipitation remains
  between late Tuesday and Wednesday. While confidence is low in
  the timing and locations, confidence is increasing (40-70% over
  24 hours) that most areas will see some light rain.



&&

.SHORT TERM...  (Through Late Saturday Night)
Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

After a breezy afternoon behind a passing cold front, northerly
winds are showing signs of winding down throughout the area as the
boundary sinks further and further south, and surface high pressure
settles in from the northwest. While still breezy with winds in the
15 to 25 mph range, speeds will continue to drop through the rest of
the day, and will gradually turn to the southeast by early tomorrow
afternoon. While we may not be feeling much in the way of a
temperature drop at the moment, a cooler airmass will settle into
the area overnight, resulting in morning lows in the upper teens to
low 20s, and highs tomorrow about 10 degrees cooler than today.
Otherwise, minimal weather concerns exist in the immediate short
term, as tomorrow will serve as a brief speedbump in the middle of a
significant warming trend that will carry into early next week.


BRC

&&

.LONG TERM...  (Sunday through Next Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

Between Sunday and Tuesday, the most notable item of interest is the
arrival of an upper level ridge from the west, along with a brief
period of modest southwesterly low level flow. The combination of
building heights and slow but steady warm air advection will drive a
rapid warming trend, with highs nearly certain (90+%) to climb well
above average (about 40-45 degrees this time of year) by Monday, and
very likely above 60 degrees in most areas by Tuesday (50-80%). Each
day between Sunday and Tuesday will be slightly warmer than the day
before it, with Tuesday peaking as the warmest day of the week.
While there is a slight bit of uncertainty in the temperature
Tuesday (as evidenced by widening ensemble spread) due to the
arrival of another cold front, it remains the likely warmest day of
the week.

Sometime late Tuesday, both a northern stream and northern stream
shortwave will move through the Mississippi Valley region, the
latter sending a cold front south through our area, and the former
providing some enhanced moisture from the south. As this moisture
(roughly 90th percentile with PWATS potential approaching 1 inch)
interacts with the cold front, a round of showers appears
increasingly likely across the area, although exactly when and
where this occurs is still uncertain. While the chance of at least
some measurable rain falling over the course of 24 hours is high
(~70%), this is not quite reflected in the 6 hour precipitation
probabilities due to the uncertainty in timing and location.
Still, most areas are likely to see at least some rain between
late Tuesday and Wednesday. Instability projections remain low at
this stage, and likewise the chance for thunderstorms remains low
(20% or less), and even lower for stronger storms.

Afterward, another cold front will be driven through the area,
putting an end to our warming trend. Temperatures are likely to
settle closer to seasonal averages, but model spread remains
relatively high throughout this period and the final values are not
very certain. Meanwhile, another chance for precipitation exists
late in the work week another shortwave arrives from the west, but
at this time range confidence remains very low in the specifics.

BRC

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 528 PM CST Fri Feb 6 2026

MVFR stratus east of the Mississippi River should move away from
the region this evening. Dry/VFR conditions are forecast through
the period, with northwest winds slackening off overnight and
becoming light/variable. Winds should then turn to the southeast
late Saturday after the passage of a surface ridge of high
pressure.

Gosselin

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.
&&

$$

WFO LSX