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Old Jamestown, Missouri 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for 3 Miles NNW Black Jack MO
National Weather Service Forecast for: 3 Miles NNW Black Jack MO
Issued by: National Weather Service Saint Louis, MO
Updated: 10:36 pm CDT Sep 9, 2026
 
Tonight

Tonight: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 4am and 5am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am.  Low around 72. Light and variable wind.  Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Showers

Thursday

Thursday: Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm.  High near 80. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the morning.  Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Thursday
Night
Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Light and variable wind.
Mostly Cloudy

Friday

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning.
Mostly Sunny

Friday
Night
Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Light southeast wind.
Partly Cloudy

Saturday

Saturday: A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Slight Chance
Showers then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Partly Cloudy
then Slight
Chance
Showers
Sunday

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.
Mostly Sunny

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Partly Cloudy

Lo 72 °F Hi 80 °F Lo 67 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 68 °F Hi 89 °F Lo 69 °F Hi 90 °F Lo 72 °F

 

Tonight
 
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 4am, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between 4am and 5am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 5am. Low around 72. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Thursday
 
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms between noon and 3pm. High near 80. Light and variable wind becoming west around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
Thursday Night
 
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. Light and variable wind.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. Light and variable wind becoming east around 6 mph in the morning.
Friday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. Light southeast wind.
Saturday
 
A slight chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Saturday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Sunday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.
Sunday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 72.
Monday
 
Sunny, with a high near 94.
Monday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 73.
Tuesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90.
Tuesday Night
 
A 40 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 69.
Wednesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for 3 Miles NNW Black Jack MO.

Weather Forecast Discussion
321
FXUS63 KLSX 100011
AFDLSX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service St Louis MO
711 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected across
  the area through Thursday.

- Thunderstorms through early this evening will be capable of
  isolated damaging wind gusts mainly across southeastern
  Missouri.

- Locally heavy rainfall is expected tonight through Thursday
  morning. There is a low chance of flooding, mainly across
  southeastern Missouri.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

A shortwave is digging into the Northern Plains along the western
periphery of upper-level troughing per water vapor imagery this
afternoon. At the surface, a cold front is moving slowly through the
Midwest, and while it is north of the CWA currently, an outflow
boundary is serving as an effective front across southeastern
Missouri and southwestern Illinois. Along and south of this boundary
resides upwards of 2,500 J/kg of MLCAPE, which has lead to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear here is fairly weak -
around 20 kts or less - leading to single or multicellular
thunderstorms with shorter lifespans. As storms collapse, high LCLs
and inverted V soundings in this area will enhance downdrafts to
lead to a isolated threat of damaging downbursts through the early
evening. Confidence is low in storms becoming strong enough to
produce this threat, as a majority of model soundings show
subsidence around 500 mb that will tend to keep updrafts subdued.

Further north across the CWA, an area of low to mid-level
convergence and pooling moisture is contributing to the elongated
region of stratiform rainfall with embedded convective elements seen
in regional radar. This convergence will slowly move southward
through this evening as the aforementioned shortwave approaches the
CWA and a low-level jet ramps up. The result will be convection
enhancing and becoming more prevalent into the overnight hours. The
orientation of the forcing and low-level jet favors training showers
and thunderstorms roughly along the I-70 corridor through Thursday
morning. The HREF and REFS have been consistent with a footprint of
greater rainfall totals along this corridor reaching 2-3" with
isolated pockets of around 4". Given our recent lack of rainfall,
soils and local waterways are expected to readily absorb this
rainfall. However, there is a low chance that if locations in the
Ozarks see 4" or greater over the course of a couple of hours,
flooding could occur.

The shortwave moves overhead tomorrow with the effective boundary
moving south of the area. Therefore, rain chances will taper off
from northwest to southeast through the day as the post-frontal
airmass settles into the Midwest. Most locations tomorrow will see
temperatures top out around 80 - the coolest highs we`ve seen so far
this month.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

For Friday through Sunday, guidance consensus is that weak troughing
will gradually diminish over the region as upper-level ridging
builds into the Midwest. While a cold front associated with a system
in southern Canada will swing south-southeastward toward the CWA,
the building ridge is expected to weaken the front and its
progression on Saturday. This front will also meet with a warm front
lifting northeastward associated with the building ridge. Both
features will provide a medium chance (up to 50%) for showers and
isolated thunderstorms mainly on Saturday.

The building ridge and warm front mark the start of another round of
anomalous heat for the CWA. Low-level southwesterly flow will advect
warm air into the region starting Sunday and particularly Monday.
Then, global ensemble members are tightly clustered around highs in
the low to mid-90s across the CWA, leading to high confidence that
this will be the warmest day of the period.

Guidance diverges on the phasing of the ridge for Tuesday and
beyond, leading to high uncertainty in our local weather,
specifically temperatures. If the ridge holds strongly over the
southern CONUS, then daily highs in the 90s will continue through
the middle of next week. However, if the ridge weakens, we could see
daily highs around 80 degrees. The current NBM and forecast attempts
to split the difference with a front stalling across our CWA,
leading to the warmer solution mainly for areas along and south of I-
70, with the cooler solution favored for areas north of I-70. While
this is also a reasonable outcome, confidence in any solution at
this point is low, and the forecast for this portion of the period
will change in the coming days.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 708 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Current conditions are VFR at all terminals. Overnight the
coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase, creating
prevailing periods of MVFR for each terminal. There remains some
uncertainty on the exact timing of the convection, so the TAFs
include a time window when our confidence is the highest that
the terminals could be impacted creating periods of IFR
conditions. Some guidance indicates that IFR conditions could
extend south into the St. Louis metro, but our confidence is
low. To indicate the possibility of the lowered ceilings, a low
scattered cloud deck was included for the St. Louis metro
terminals. Due to the low-level moisture associated with the
rainfall, confidence is high that ceilings will remain lower
through tomorrow morning keeping terminals in MVFR. Conditions
are expected to improve and return to VFR conditions by the end
of this TAF period.

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
IL...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Elmore
LONG TERM...Elmore
AVIATION...Asel/BSH
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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